Validation Results
Finnish Grid
Coverage period365 days
Events490
AUC-PR0.483
Retrospective · proxy ground truth (FCR events)
95% CI[0.442, 0.502]
Median lead time165 minutes
Retrospective · proxy ground truth (FCR events)
NESO GB Grid
Coverage period334 days
Events8,245
AUC-PR0.4443
Retrospective · proxy ground truth (FCR events)
95% CI[0.4256, 0.4419]
Median lead time29 minutes
Retrospective · proxy ground truth (FCR events)
F10.5424
Retrospective · proxy ground truth (FCR events)
≥10 min detection82.9%
Ground truth note: Ground truth events are FCR-proxy events (|Δf| ≥ 0.10 Hz). Operator-declared event cross-validation is in progress. Results are experimental and not safety-certified.
Operational Impact
29 minutes of advance warning means a grid operator can verify conditions, brief colleagues, and begin coordinated load management before threshold crossing. 82.9% of NESO GB events were detected ≥10 minutes before threshold. 65.9% were detected ≥20 minutes before threshold.
BCI-based early warning does not replace operator judgment — it extends the window in which judgment can be applied effectively.